What Makes This American Government Shutdown Distinct (as well as More Intractable)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature in American political life – but the current situation appears particularly intractable because of shifting political forces and bad blood between the two parties.
Some government services face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 employees are expected to be put on furlough without pay as Republicans and Democrats can't agree on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse continue to fall short, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path this time as each side – including the President – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.
Here are several key factors that make things feel different currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base have insisted over recent periods for their representatives more forcefully fights the current presidency. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show their responsiveness.
Earlier this year, Senate leader faced strong criticism after supporting a Republican spending bill thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. Now he's digging in.
This is a chance for Democrats to show they can take back certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk that the wider public will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the budget standoff to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support and GOP-backed federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to restrict executive utilization of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and various federal programs.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader and one of his key officials have openly indicated of the fact that they smell a chance to make more of reductions to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency so far.
The President himself stated recently that the shutdown had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to cut "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, though administration officials have been consulting with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, which is headed by the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
Third, Trust Is Lacking between both parties
Whereas past government closures typically involved extended negotiations between the two parties in an effort to get government services running again, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness of collaboration this time.
Instead, there is rancour. The bad blood persisted recently, as both sides blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
House Speaker a Republican, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and maintaining positions during discussions "for electoral protection".
Simultaneously, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation at the other side, stating how a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The President himself has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat in the House, in which the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and a moustache.
The representative and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Experts project about 40% of the federal workforce – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of government activity connected to commercial interests cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of approximately 0.2% from national economic expansion for each week it lasts.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why financial markets have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, analysts say that if the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, economic harm might become extended in duration.
